Thoughts on Belgian intelligence, and the ultimate tragedy of ISIS-inspired terrorism

http://mashable.com/2016/03/22/belgium-brussels-attacks-security-vulnerable/#YLx3UvHEfmqE

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brussels-attacks-belgian-intelligence-service-seen-as-weak-link-in-europe-1.2583514

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium-1.710572

The theme of weak Belgian domestic intelligence and security is a tired old one. It's probably not a mere scapegoat, since people have been warning about it long enough before this. (Since after the Paris attacks, actually.)

I don't understand their domestic context and history enough to analyze it properly. Instead, what came to mind was the thought that any organization ought to prepare for after-action reviews following such incidents, because there are always unknown unknowns. These sorts of things can be easily convened, but it would be better for all stakeholders if the details are discreetly sorted out - for example, how to manage the PR during a public hearing.

More importantly, the paradigm of vaguely-ISIS-inspired opportunistic attacks on nations (Australia, the US, France, Indonesia, now Belgium) is distressing but honestly counterproductive.

They do not strike at anyone's centre of gravity. The world at large retains the ability to do serious damage to ISIS-held lands and sympathizers (or simply prolong the war in Syria), no matter if it's accomplished by the US, EU, the Saudi coalition, or even Russia. If political considerations are overridden, this could be easily done.

Despite the mayhem, these attacks are tactical victories at best and don't do much except raise the stakes. Ideally, terror strikes would be targeted against enemy nations' centers of gravity to hurt them; instead we have violence for violence's sake. (Without some sort of central command, these terrorists are more similar to criminals/extremely violent franchises of a street gang rather than soldiers.)

My argument will fall, however, if the targets are willing to accept/are sensitized to a new normality of occasional attacks, which is still possible! 

It would be more productive to examine whether the tempo is increasing in response to the extreme pressure on ISIS in Syria, or perhaps the seeds planted in these men some years back bearing fruit. Or this Brussels attack could be an anomaly in response to the recent crackdown.

Regarding centers of gravity that are actually affected, it's possible that one centre of gravity is to stoke racial tensions and widen the war. However, to prove this, one would need to demonstrate that the terrorists or their spiritual leaders are actually thinking in such terms, and are welcoming more battle.

P.S.: Thank you for returning after my long hiatus - I recently began full-time employment, which changed my situation rather drastically. I do hope to continue to share my thoughts in a more focused manner.