Friday 6 September 2013

Russian naval deployment to Syria

The Russian Slava-class cruiser. The Moskva, the lead ship of the class, has been deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean 

There are a few possible reasons for the continued Russian naval deployment in the Eastern Mediterranean off Syria. There are even reports that their carrier (or heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser) will rock up.

1)Evacuation. Considering that two landing ships are being sent, this certainly passes the plausibility check. The decision to evacuate Tartus now is interesting - perhaps meant to prevent any retaliation to Russian nationals from parties in Syria, or to remove the base from the great power equation being played out right now.

2) SIGINT gathering – this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to gather intelligence on US/NATO communications, the signatures of stealth bombers and perhaps other classified platforms loitering or on the attack, and the chance to see how the US does its work firsthand. Moreover, they could give a friendly tipoff to Assad and the world if something happened - something highlighted by the casual breaking of news about ballistic launches in the Mediterranean a while earlier. (The earlier RT source even said as much: According to a ministry spokesman’s Tuesday statement, the key task of the Russian standing naval force in the Mediterranean is “comprehensive monitoring over the air, underwater, and surface situation in the zone of its deployment.”)

3) Showing the flag to Russian allies and partners. I am not entirely sure whom - the Central Asian republics? Vietnam, a major arms purchaser? In any case, this does prove Russia's power projection capability. Nonetheless, this does also showcase its limits: it's unclear if the presence of the Black Sea Fleet's ships genuinely deters US intervention. The risk of SIGINT leaks or a play-by-play retelling of NATO maneuvers in the eastern Med is one thing, but short of another sneaky Pristina airport incident (James Blunt saved the world, check it out), your author is honestly unconvinced barring access to more classified information and the inner thoughts and communications of the leaders involved in the crisis. There might yet be an unknown factor.

No comments:

Post a Comment